Is ALT DAT SZN Over?

Key Takeaways

• We are living in the ALT DAT SZN. Since BitMine in July 2025, numerous ALT DAT companies have emerged, The stress test for a market downturn has not yet been properly conducted.
  

• In the midst of that, on October 10, 2025, the crypto market crashed. The prevailing belief was that the stock prices of ALT DAT companies were more vulnerable than the prices of the altcoins that underlie them. But was that really the case? In this article, we compare mNAV, stock performance, and token price performance before and after the crash to discuss the resilience of ALT DAT.

1. ALT DAT SZN

DAT was one of the most important keywords in the 2025 crypto market. In July 2025, BitMine and Tom Lee emerged suddenly and widely introduced the concept of ETH DAT companies to the market. Spotting the opportunity, companies and investors joined forces to create DATs not only for blue-chip altcoins such as SOL, HYPE, SUI, and ENA but also for meme coins like DOGE and BONK, and even for tokens like 0G that had not yet undergone TGE.

They utilized various funding mechanisms such as ATM, PIPE, and SPAC, and went beyond simply purchasing altcoins from their foundations under favorable conditions. They actively engaged in staking and DeFi operations, and even collaborated with ecosystem projects to launch diverse business ventures through aggressive strategies.

There has been much debate over the legitimacy of ALT DAT companies, but in broad terms—such as improving accessibility and creating opportunities through volatility—they do not differ much from blue-chip DAT companies like BTC or ETH. While ALT DATs are indeed more exposed to price decline risks stemming from their underlying assets compared to blue-chip DAT strategies, their close cooperation with foundations, staking and DeFi operations, and the ease of token accumulation can serve as advantageous factors.

Although various risks associated with ALT DAT companies have been discussed, they had never undergone a proper stress test until now. Then, on October 10, 2025, the crypto market faced an unprecedented crash.

2. The 10/10 Crash, Is ALT DAT SZN Over?

2.1 The 10/10 Crash

On October 10, 2025, President Trump announced an additional 100% tariff on Chinese products, causing the cryptocurrency market to experience an unprecedented crash. That day, across several exchanges, a massive $19B in long positions were liquidated, marking the largest single liquidation event in crypto market history.

Representative assets such as BTC dropped by 16% and ETH by 21%, but even relatively large altcoins like SOL and BNB plunged by 25% and 32% respectively. ATOM, facing liquidity issues, plummeted 99% on Binance, momentarily reaching $0.001. October 10 turned out to be a particularly brutal day for altcoins.

2.2 Is ALT DAT SZN Over?

If altcoins plummeted, what happened to the stock prices of DAT companies that accumulate them? In fact, many ALT DAT companies continued to operate their existing businesses, but since pivoting to ALT DAT strategies, their primary focus has been on accumulating altcoins and leveraging them in blockchain-related ventures. Naturally, the stock prices of ALT DAT companies are highly sensitive to altcoin prices.

Therefore, I compared the prices of altcoins and DAT company stocks based on the market close on October 10 and October 13. Furthermore, I analyzed how mNAV changed and summarized the sensitivity of stock prices to altcoin price movements in the table above.

One unfortunate point is that the market crash on October 10 occurred after the US stock market had closed. During the weekend, the crypto market recovered substantially while US stocks remained untraded. As a result, the altcoin crash was not fully reflected in the stock prices of ALT DAT companies.

2.2.1 mNAV Analysis

• mNAV Winners: MSTR (BTC), BMNR (ETH), DFDV (SOL), UPXI (SOL), SUIG (SUI), TRON (TRX), LITS (LTC), IPST (IP), ZONE (DOGE)

• mNAV Losers: SBET (ETH), HYPD (HYPE), TONX (TON), BNKK (BONK)

mNAV is an indicator showing how a company’s valuation compares to the value of the altcoins it holds. For pure DAT models whose business consists solely of treasury management, an mNAV of 1 is considered normal. However, since companies differ in their existing business scale, leadership, funding methods, and the types of underlying assets, mNAV values naturally vary.

Interestingly, except for a few cases, most companies saw their mNAV slightly increase after the market crash. Even for companies whose mNAV declined, the drop was minimal, except for BNKK.

2.2.2 Sensitivity Analysis

• Sensitivity > 1: BMNR (ETH), DFDV (SOL), UPXI (SOL), HYPD (HYPE), TONX (TON), BNKK (BONK)

• Sensitivity < 1: SBET (ETH), LITS (LTC), ZONE (DOGE)

• Negative Sensitivity: MSTR (BTC), SUIG (SUI), TRON (TRX), IPST (IP)

Market participants tend to view DAT companies as leveraged instruments of their underlying tokens. In fact, VanEck’s report describes MSTR as a convexity bet on BTC prices, suggesting that investors may gain exposure beyond simply holding BTC, akin to a call option. Based on this view, the sensitivity value, which measures stock price changes relative to token price changes, should be greater than 1.

However, upon examination, although many companies had sensitivity values above 1, there were several whose sensitivity was below 1 or even negative.

2.2.3 Overall Evaluation

For ETH and SOL, prices actually rose between the market close on October 10 and October 13. Most companies maintained or even improved their mNAVs, and MSTR, the BTC DAT company, showed an increase in mNAV as its stock price rose despite a slight drop in BTC price. This indicates that blue-chip DAT companies like those tied to BTC, ETH, and SOL effectively defended their mNAVs even amid market turmoil.

When analyzing other ALT DATs, results were contrary to market expectations. Investors generally assume that when the underlying altcoin price falls, the mNAV of the ALT DAT will also collapse. However, the opposite was often observed. SUIG, TRON, LITS, IPST, and ZONE are examples, and in particular, SUIG, TRON, and IPST saw stock price increases despite declines in their corresponding altcoins.

This suggests that the valuation of ALT DAT companies does not track the prices of their underlying altcoins as closely as many think. Several factors could explain this, as company valuation depends not only on token prices but also on leadership, funding structures, and existing business operations.

Additionally, the relatively low market interest in ALT DAT stocks could be another factor. For instance, on October 13, Binance’s TRX trading volume was $317M, whereas TRON’s NASDAQ trading volume was only around $4M. IPST’s NASDAQ volume that day was only about $300K.

As seen in the table, since the leadership, strategy, and business models of ALT DAT companies differ widely, it is difficult to derive insights based solely on altcoin prices. Nonetheless, several key takeaways can be summarized:

• For blue-chip tokens such as BTC, ETH, and SOL, market resilience was higher compared to other altcoins, and their mNAVs, a core metric of DAT companies, remained strong as expected.

• Other ALT DAT companies also displayed mNAV figures that were surprisingly stable relative to the scale of the crash, contrary to common market assumptions.

• Sensitivity values ranged widely from 0.6 to as high as 3–4 or even 7–8, indicating that it would be valuable to analyze these relationships over time by considering not just the underlying assets but also other factors affecting ALT DAT companies.

3. Is the ALT DAT SZN Really Over?

Since the crash on October 10, many have claimed that the DAT SZN has come to an end. It is true that while major tokens have recovered in price, many altcoins have yet to rebound, making life more difficult for ALT DAT companies. However, after analyzing the mNAVs of ALT DAT companies, it appears that, although further investigation is needed to identify the causes, they have shown resilience contrary to common market assumptions.

Of course, operating a DAT company and supporting its stock price may become increasingly difficult. Considering that accessibility and volatility are key factors in maintaining a DAT premium, as global regulations become clearer and the blockchain market evolves into an institution-driven ecosystem, the appeal of DAT company stocks is likely to decline. In fact, even Metaplanet, a BTC DAT company that had benefited from a Japan market premium, recently recorded an mNAV below 1 for the first time, showing how unforgiving the market has become.

However, one thing is certain: the ALT DAT SZN is not over. In fact, there have been many cases where the stock prices of ALT DAT companies performed better than the prices of their underlying altcoins. This could serve as an opportunity to build credibility and positive perception among institutional investors.

The following are key points to watch in the ALT DAT sector going forward:

• Subsequent Stress Tests: This market crash was the first major one since the DAT concept became widespread. It will be important to observe how the stock prices and mNAVs of ALT DAT companies respond during future downturns.

• Trading Volume of ALT DAT Stocks: As regulations become clearer and institutional access to crypto grows, the attractiveness of ALT DAT companies may diminish. It will be important to monitor how the trading volumes of ALT DAT stocks trend over time.

• Sustainability of mNAV < 1: Many ALT DAT companies currently have an mNAV below 1. Since an mNAV above 1 is essential for the positive feedback loop of the DAT model, it will be worth watching whether these companies can recover above 1—or what consequences may follow if they do not.

• Business Diversification: The competitiveness of ALT DAT companies goes beyond simply acquiring and holding altcoins. It involves activities such as staking, DeFi operations, and close collaboration with ecosystems and foundations to deliver diverse products. It will be interesting to see what kinds of business strategies ALT DAT companies adopt to survive in this increasingly competitive environment.

• Multiple ALT DAT Companies for the Same Altcoin: Unlike BTC, ETH, or SOL, most altcoins typically have only one ALT DAT company, since close collaboration with the foundation is essential for a DAT strategy. However, in some cases, there are two or more ALT DAT companies linked to the same altcoin. In such cases, the company that cooperates more closely with the foundation is likely to gain a competitive edge, and it will be interesting to see how these rivalries unfold.